Advanced Daily Fantasy Football Strategy: CPD2 Analysis

Note: All information and resource found on Mantelligence.com are based on the opinions of the author unless otherwise noted. We therefore (and I promise this is obvious) do not guarantee that you'll make whatever money. To be honest, you'll probably lose it. Fantasy football is hard, and is also arguably gambling. If you accept a problem with gambling, I suggest you seek aid.

…and you lot're ready to take your game to the adjacent level... to commencement winning more than games and start earning more money?

Well, check this out:

Today, I'm going to prove you lot a revolutionary technique that willgreatlyincrease your chances of winning:

The CPD2 Analysis Technique.

CPD2 is an advanced analysis technique that gives you deep insight into players' consistency, their projected performance and whether they're worth their salary price.

It'south so constructive considering information technology will help you to easily find that calendar week'due south best players... at the best prices.

And beneath, I'k going to testify you footstep by footstep how you tin can implement this powerful daily fantasy football strategy to dramatically increase your chances of winning.

This postal service was made possible past Yahoo Daily Fantasy Sports, the only fantasy operator to offer both full flavor fantasy sports and daily fantasy sports.

An Advanced Guide to Winning Daily Fantasy Football

via: Depositphotos / justinkendra

CPD2 is based on, and builds on, the concepts and strategies that I covered in our Primer to Daily Fantasy Football.

So... if you haven't read that article yet, I highly suggest y'all practice and then before learning CPD2. If you've already read it, you tin skip the first two sections (which are a recap) past using the tabular array of contents below or by clicking hither.

Contents

Selection the Correct Type of the Right Type of Contest

The almost important dominion to assistance you lot consistently win money playing daily fantasy football is picking the right type of contest.

While I covered this fully hither... as a quick epitomize:

Of the 4 types of contests, the right type of competition is fifty/50. With a 50/50 contest you won't earn a huge corporeality each time you win…

…but since y'all have such a higher risk of winning, you're likely to win more than consistently. It won't aid you get rich speedily... simply information technology will help you to slowly make money over time.

Make sense?

At present, of 50/fifty contests, there is a specific blazon of fifty/50 contest that should assistance increment your chances of winning... expect for contests that have:

1. A high number of players. More than entries ways a larger sample size... which means less variance... which means less risk of being knocked off past an abnormally high scoring team (like you might in a i 5 one, head to head lucifer).
2. A lower entry fee. Not only does this mean less upfront financial adventure, but also, since the more than experienced players are drawn to games with higher payouts, you're more likely to face a level playing field

Here'south the bottom line:

The best type of contest to play is a 50/50 competition... with a loftier number of players and a depression entry fee.

*For more than data on the right blazon of contest, check out these resource:

What is a 50/50 contest

Why exactly 50/50 is the best contest type

3 Must-Know Tips to Winning 50/fifty Contests

via: Depositphotos / herreid

In our Primer to Daily Fantasy Football, I list 7 tips for winning a l/fifty contest... below, are the 3 nigh important:

Tip #1: Typhoon the right type of players

Want to know the secret to winning 50/50 contests?

Typhoon consequent players.

...And here'southward why:

To win a 50/50 contest, you simply need to score higher than fifty% of your competition. This means y'all're not shooting for the highest possible score... y'all're but aiming for an above average score that beats half of your competitors.

What does this mean in practical terms?

To win 50/l contests, don't draft nail-bosom players... draft players who score consistent and predictable fantasy points. They're a safe bet and will help yous become your above average, winning score.

For more than info on rule #1, click here.

Tip #2: Capitalize on weaknesses... play the matchup

via: Depositphotos / 33ft

When you're playing daily fantasy football, one of the most important things you lot can do is exploit weak matchups.

For case:

A stud WR is being defended by a weak corner, an all-star QB is facing a weak secondary, a powerful RB is facing a terrible rushing defence, etc.

Seeing these weak matchups and capitalizing on them can meanbig fantasy points for yous.

For more info on rule #2, click hither.

Tip #3: Stack but spread

One of the easiest and most effective daily fantasy football strategies is stacking.

Stacking is when you pair a QB and his star WR or TE. If your QB throws a touchdown to the WR/TE, you score points on both ends of the play.

At present:

You lot besides want to be sure to spread the love...

Outset, don't draft a QB and a RB on the same team.

Chances are if one does well, the other won't. Think near it:

There are only going to be 3-4 touchdowns per game... and on each touchdown, merely the QB or the RB can score fantasy points.

2d, don't option more than two players on the same offense, per lineup.

Don't "super stack" by drafting a QB/WR/WR or a QB/WR/TE all from the same squad.

If you do this, yous're putting all your eggs in one basket and not diversifying your risk. What happens if the QB doesn't have a good game… or worse, gets injured?

The CPD2 Assay Technique

Before we dive into CPD2 I desire to make something clear:

This daily fantasy football strategy is incredibly easy to follow and like shooting fish in a barrel to implement... merely information technology does accept time (around an hr per week).

With that in mind:

If yous desire to win playing daily fantasy football... CPD2 is i of best analysis techniques there is to help you lot.It reveals the best players, at the all-time prices, and gives you a serious edge over your competition.

So, without further ado, here is CPD2:

1. Find (c)onsistent players... analyze point floors

Recollect:

In 50/50 games, we're looking for consistency... and one of the best measures of a role player'south consistency is their floor.

Their flooring is the lowest number of points that they're expected to score that calendar week (in other words, an estimated baseline).

There are a couple great tools for analyzing a player's floor... just my favorite by far is Rotogrinder's consistency stats tool. It'south accurate and incredibly like shooting fish in a barrel to utilize:

Step #1: Open Rotogrinder's consistency stats tool. Here's a screenshot of what information technology looks like:

Pace #2: Select the fantasy football game operator you lot play with (for case: Yahoo) and click NFL.

Step #3: Select the correct position (QB, RB, WR, TE) and click season (or last season if it'south early in the current flavor).

Step #4: Sort the data from highest to lowest floor points, past clicking on the word "Floor". Here'south what the sorted data will wait similar for the top QBs (as of the posting of this article):

You can encounter that Wilson'south expected floor is 22.52 points, whereas Brady's is 14.93.

Pace #5: Highlight the data for the top x players, then copy and paste these numbers into an Excel doc or a Google Canvas.

Now:

Every bit you can see above, this tool displays a handful of other metrics (like ceiling, %2x, %3x, etc.). These metrics will tell you how big a player has the potential to go... not how consistently he plays well.

...And what'southward the key to winning 50/fifty contests?

Consistency.

And so... grab the floor data (we'll analyze this further in step #3) and bound to the next pace.

2. Detect big (p)rojected performers... clarify projected points

Fantasy football game is big business ($11 billion per year large).

...And because of this, at that place are people who've fabricated a career out of estimating how many fantasy points players will score each week.

Look:

By nature, these numbers aren't 100% accurate... they're predictions.

...But here'south the affair:

These analysts are pros. Not only do they have a lot of experience making their predictions, but they too use a ton of data to do it(a histrion's recent performance, the defence force of the opposing team, etc.).

So... while these predictions aren't perfect, they'll give you an educated guess at a role player'due south future performance.

At present:

At that place are countless sources for this data, but my favorite is FFToday. FFToday has been giving fantasy football advice since 1997 and they practise a damn good job of information technology.

What's more, getting the data from their site, to utilise for CPD2 is incredibly piece of cake:

Step #i: Go to FFToday.com's histrion project tool. Here'southward a screenshot of what information technology looks similar:

Step #2: Choice the correct position (QB, RB, WR, TE) and the current calendar week.

Footstep #3: Select the fantasy football operator y'all play with (for instance: Yahoo) from the drop down menu (see the red arrow above).

Stride #4: Sort the data from highest to lowest projected points, by clicking on the word "FFPts." Here's what it will wait similar for the top QBs (every bit of the posting of this article):

You lot can run across that Cam Newton is expected to score 29.seven points, Russell Wilson 27.7, and Drew Brees 23.4.

Step #five: Highlight the information for the height ten players, then copy and paste this into your Excel or Google spreadsheet.

At present:

On its own, this data is invaluable. It will requite yous a cracking idea of which players will exercise well next week (which is obviously incredibly important)...

...but in the side by side step, nosotros're going to conduct an even deeper analysis of information technology.

3. Detect the best players at the best prices... summate cost ((d)ollars) per point

Here'south the affair:

Flooring and project data are nifty, merely since each player has a dissimilar bacon (and costs a different corporeality), it'due south hard to compare the price-to-point value of individual players.

But check this out:

In this stride, you're going to combine the floor/projection data with the salary figures to create one universal, easily comparable metric:

Price(dollars) per point.

Cost(dollars) per point will show youexactly how much each point (from a specific player) will cost you.

For example:

Allow's say that i thespian costs $1.fifty per point and another costs $two.33 per indicate.

Which would you lot choose?

Of course the first histrion... and this is why cost per point is then powerful. Information technology cuts through all the data and gives you one clear number to compare players with.

Pretty great, right?

...And here's the best part:

Since yous've already pulled all the data into a spreadsheet in steps #one and #ii, computing these numbers is quick and piece of cake:

Calculating cost per signal(floor)

Step #1: Add together a column to the right of the %6x cavalcade titled "Cost/Betoken (floor)".

Now, to determine Cost/Point (floor), split a histrion's salary past their floor points. Using Russell Wilson from the spreadsheet below as an instance, this would exist $36/22.52 = $one.lx.

Step #2: Do this same division for the remaining ix players (run across this tutorial for a fast way to do this) and y our concluding product volition look something like this:

What does this data hateful?

The cost per point(floor) is the amount that each expected floor point will cost y'all. Using Russell Wilson as an example, every flooring point he'southward expected to earn will cost y'all $1.threescore.

At present:

Let's compare the toll per point(floor) for two of the league'due south current height QBs: Andrew Luck ($one.58) and Ben Roethlisberger ($1.99). You can meet that, strictly from a cost/expected floor bespeak perspective, Luck is a much ameliorate deal than Roethlisberger.

Pro tip: The more games a role player has played, the more accurate this data will exist (you can find the number of games played in the GP column).

For example... Zach Mettenberger's 5 games of information are less accurate than Russell Wilson'south 14 games of data.

Calculating price per point (projected)

Step #1: Add a column to the right of the Histrion column titled "Salary", then pull the electric current bacon data from a tool similar Rotogrinder's consistency stats tool.

Step #two: Next, add a column to the right of the FFPts cavalcade titled "Toll/Bespeak (projected)".

Now, to make up one's mind cost per point(projected), divide a player'south salary by their projected points (FFPts). Using Cam Newton from the spreadsheet below as an example, this would be $35/29.vii = $1.xviii.

Step #3: Exercise this same segmentation for the remaining 9 players (run across this tutorial for a fast way to do this)and y our  final product will expect something like this:

What does this data mean?

The toll per point(projected) tells you how much information technology costs for each point a histrion is projected to score in the next game he plays.

For example:

At just $ane.18 per point, Cam Newton is clearly a better deal than Aaron Rodger at $1.63 per bespeak.

At present:

In the adjacent step, we're going to combine these numbers with your knowledge to gear up the best possible lineup.

4. Put it all together... select your best starting lineup

We accept a lot of raw data... and now information technology's fourth dimension to put it all to good use.

To make things easier, I like to make i master spreadsheet that has all the relevant data... like this:

At present:

When I create my main spreadsheet, I just include the players with the 5 highest floor points... because recollect:

To win a 50/50 competition, the most important thing is consequent players(and a nifty measure of consistency is floor data).

And then... of the players with the 5 highest floor points, who do you see as the first and second best?

Allow'southward suspension things down:

First, rule out Andrew Luck who is currently injured. Adjacent, let's cut Palmer and Roethlisberger. They have the ii everyman flooring/projected points and the ii highest costs per bespeak for both floor and projected points.

So who does that get out usa with?

Russell Wilson and Cam Newton.

Now:

From the data higher up, you tin can see that either player is a not bad choice for your fantasy lineup. Both accept a high floor, both are projected to score a loftier number of points and both are relatively affordable given their cost per signal for both flooring and projected points.

So what practise y'all do?

Here's where y'all need to comprise the rest of your general football game knowledge and daily fantasy football game strategy and skill to make the best decision.

Who has the ameliorate matchup? Is one playing on the route while the other is playing at abode? Is one of the QB'south starting WRs injured? Etc., etc., etc.

Pro tip: If you enter in more than one 50/50 competition, it's a good thought to diversify your lineups (part of tip #1 from our Primer to Daily Fantasy Football).

Afterward you do your assay for each position, I suggest y'all have the elevation players of your analysis(like Russell Wilson and Cam Newton higher up) and mix them up to create a scattering of different lineups.

5. Polish your team... pick a winning (d)efense/special teams

And so you've used the CPD2 analysis technique and your daily fantasy football noesis/skill to craft a great lineup.

Here'southward the mistake well-nigh daily fantasy football game rookies brand at this betoken:

Overlook the D/ST.

They write it off as something that's too hard to predict or non worth their time...

...but in the words of fantasy pro Michael "Rath" Rathburn:

The idea that D/ST is insignificant could not be further from the truth, and often the players who win large-field tournaments in weekly fantasy football are the ones who have the superlative scoring D/ST units."

And get this:

Picking a great D/ST unremarkably isn't that hard. According to Rath, historical data shows that home teams average twenty% more points than road defenses.

Pretty crazy, right?

He continues to say that, historically, the D/ST sweet spot is a combination of three things:

1. A home squad
2. Who is favored
3. And is playing outdoors

Find a team that meets all iii criteria and chances are you'll have a great D/ST to finish off your fantasy dream team.

Pro tip: On tiptop of the three above, endeavour to find a defense who'southward playing in bad atmospheric condition. As you tin can imagine... bad weather usually means more turnovers and more points for you.

Notes On the CPD2 Analysis Technique

CPD2 is a great technique, only I by no mean guarantee yous'll win using it.

Look:

While it gives you some incredibly powerful insights, y'all notwithstanding need to combine its results with your football noesis and daily fantasy football skill.

Call up:

Daily fantasy football is a game of skill that requires research, specialize knowledge, and practise . Tip #2 in ourPrimer to Daily Fantasy Football was "Practise before you Pay"... and with that, I highly recommend you lot practice the CPD2 analysis technique on free contests(to see if it works for you) before implementing information technology on paid contests.

In Conclusion

CPD2 is a powerful daily fantasy football strategy that volition give you deep insight into a player's consistency, their projected operation and whether they're worth their salary toll.

It'due south designed to help you lot to make hugelybetter lineup decisions and dramaticallyincrease your chances of winning in 50/50 daily fantasy football contests.

via: Yahoo

With Yahoo Daily Fantasy Sports, game day is now payday. Yahoo has nearly two decades of feel in fantasy sports...

...and is the only fantasy operator to offer both total season fantasy sports and daily fantasy sports.

Not certain which player to start? Don't worry... Yahoo's seasoned Fantasy experts volition help you brand the best roster choices.

Here's the bottom line:

If you do well in your season-long fantasy football, y'all'll love Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football.

...And for a limited fourth dimension, Yahoo will friction match your commencement deposit(upwards to $2,000(about daily fantasy networks simply match up to $600)).

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Source: https://www.mantelligence.com/advanced-daily-fantasy-football-analysis/

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